TS Module 8: Non-stationary time series basics HW


TS Module 8: Non-stationary time series basics HW

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NEAS
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TS Module 8: Non-stationary time series basics HW

(The attached PDF file has better formatting.)

Homework assignment: Stationarity through differencing and logarithms

Automobile liability claim severities have a geometric trend of +8% per annum.

The average claim severity in year t is the average claim severity in year t-1 adjusted for the geometric trend, plus or minus a random error term.

Assume the error term is added to the logarithm of the average claim severities.

The average claim severities are multiplied by a random error term.

 

Is the time series of average claim severities stationary?

Is the first difference of this time series stationary?

Is the second difference of this time series stationary?

Is the logarithm of this time series stationary?

What transformation makes the time series stationary?

Jacob:

What is the form of this time series?

Rachel:

Actuaries write: Yt = 1.08 Yt-1. The error term is multiplicative: Yt = 1.08 Yt-1 × (1 +

å).

A separate discussion forum posting shows the solution.


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Edited 12 Years Ago by NEAS
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akoch81
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Is it safe to assume at this point that there is no "separate discussion forum posting on practice problems"
showing the solution?

It would be helpful to confirm the process, but like the others, I can't find the posting you (NEAS) are referring to.

[NEAS: Sorry, the post was inadvertently deleted; it is reposted now as "homework hint."]
Edited 12 Years Ago by NEAS
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