Should I be trying to replicate the NEAS results?

[NEAS: This is an independent student project. The NEAS postings are suggestions to get you started. You can construct an ARIMA model, compare two or more models for a given era, compare two or three eras by type of model of by model parameters, examine seasonality, test out-of-sample forecasts, and many other items.]

To reproduce the regression outputs produced by NEAS, you must perform a regression with the series as the Y variable, and the series lagged one period (yt-1)  [y_t-1] as the X variable. You can look at the source data of their charts to make sure you are picking up the same time period.