Questions and Answers on Tme Series Modeling


Questions and Answers on Tme Series Modeling

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JoeyR
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Should I be trying to replicate the NEAS results?

[NEAS: This is an independent student project. The NEAS postings are suggestions to get you started. You can construct an ARIMA model, compare two or more models for a given era, compare two or three eras by type of model of by model parameters, examine seasonality, test out-of-sample forecasts, and many other items.]


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Chesters Mom
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White Noise Testing--

I have a series that looks stationary after first-differenced. For the white noise tests, specifically, for Bartlett's test, do I apply it to the regression residuals' autocorrelations or the series' sample autocorrelations? And what if the three tests (DW, BP's Q, and Bartlett's) give conflicting information? Right now I have DW saying white noise and the other two saying not white noise.

Thanks.

Jacob: Does it make sense for the Durbin-Watson statistic to indicate white noise and the other two tests (Bartlett’s test and the Box-Pierce Q statistic) to indicate not white noise?

Rachel: These are statistical tests. They give confidence intervals, not absolute answers. The Box-Pierce Q statistic and Bartlett’s test are more strict; they are less likely to suggest that the residuals are white noise.


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