A.     Estimate the parameter ö by regression analysis.

B.     What are 95% confidence intervals for the value of ö?

C.    You initially believed that ö is 50%. Should you reject this assumption?

The time series course does not teach regression analysis. You are assumed to know how to run a regression analysis, and you must run regressions for the student project.

Use the Excel regression add-in. The 95% confidence interval is the estimated â ± the t-value × the standard error of â. The t-value depends on the number of observations. Excel has a built-in function giving the t-value for a sample of N observations.

Following the NEAS post I entered

X as {0.44 1.05 0.62 0.72 1.08 1.24 1.42 1.35}.

and Y as {1.05 0.62 0.72 1.08 1.24 1.42 1.35 1.50}.

After I did the regression I got 0.5425 as the coeffecient for X which would be the phi value. And {-0.16579,1.25081} as the 95% confidence level for phi.

When I perform the phi hat calculation on page 155 of the text I got .4904. Is this just an estimation and that is why it does not match the answer from the regression or did I set up the regression wrong?