A.     Estimate the parameter ö by regression analysis.

B.     What are 95% confidence intervals for the value of ö?

C.    You initially believed that ö is 50%. Should you reject this assumption?

The time series course does not teach regression analysis. You are assumed to know how to run a regression analysis, and you must run regressions for the student project.

Use the Excel regression add-in. The 95% confidence interval is the estimated â ± the t-value × the standard error of â. The t-value depends on the number of observations. Excel has a built-in function giving the t-value for a sample of N observations.

Doc, if I got any of the assignments incorrect, it was this one.  That being said, I converted Y_t into Y-bar_t, to create a zero-mean function of time.  I used homework 10's method to find r₁ for what I feel constitute's "regression analysis".  This is the estimate of phi-hat.

For part B I used Excel's regression to find the confidence interval, if your estimate is within the 95% confidence interval, then it is quite likely that you wouldn't reject this assumption.

RDH