TS Module 15: Forecasting basics HW


TS Module 15: Forecasting basics HW

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TS Module 15: Forecasting basics HW

 

(The attached PDF file has better formatting.)

 

Homework assignment: ARIMA(1,1,0) forecasts

 

An ARIMA(1,1,0) process has 40 observations yt, t = 1, 2, …, 40, with y40 = 60 and y39 = 50.

 

This time series is not stationary, but its first differences are a stationary AR(1) process.

 

The parameter è0 of the stationary AR(1) time series of first differences is 5.

 

The 1 period ahead forecast ŷ40(1) is 60.

 

We determine the 2 period ahead forecast ŷ40(2).

 


A.     What is the most recent value of the autoregressive model of first differences? Derive this value from the most recent two values of the ARIMA(1,1,0) process.

B.     What is the one period ahead forecast of the first differences? Derive this value from the the one period ahead forecast of the ARIMA(1,1,0) process.

C.    What is the parameter ö1 of the AR(1) process of first differences? Derive this parameter from the 1 period ahead forecast.

D.    What is the two periods ahead forecast of the AR(1) process of first differences? Use the parameter of the AR(1) process.

E.     What is the two periods ahead forecast of the ARIMA(1,1,0) process? Derive this from the two periods ahead forecast of the AR(1) process.


 

 

 

 


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Tom McNamara III
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I am confused as to the relationship between a non-stationary ARIMA(1,1,0) [integrated autoregressive moving average (p,d,q)] and an ARMA.

1st off this question says the process is an ARIMA(1,1,0).  Is the zero necessary.  Isn't this just an ARI(1,1)?

[NEAS: Correct; ARI is an abbreviation for an ARIMA process with q = 0]

An ARIMA(p,d,q) process can be rewritten as am ARMA(p+1,q) process (Cryer Chan page 92).

[NEAS: No, and Cryer Chan do not say this. The first differences of an ARIMA process with d = 1 are an ARMA process of the same order.]

So how can this non-stationary ARIMA(1,1,0) be put into terms of an AR(1)?  Shouldn't it be an AR(2)?

[NEAS: The first differences of ARIMA(1,1,0) are an AR(1) process.]

Also, no where in the Module 15 reading does it mention 1st differences.  I have come across modules like this before where the reading does not match up with the homework assignments very well.  I came across this with the QQ plots in module 14.  I am growing frustrated with doing readings where the corresponding homeworks come out of left field.

[NEAS: Cryer Chan discuss first differences throughout their text, beginning in chapter 5.]

 

 



Tom McNamara III
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