TS Module 3: Trends HW


TS Module 3: Trends HW

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NEAS
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TS Module 3: Trends HW

 

(The attached PDF file has better formatting.)

 

Homework assignment: MA(1) Process: Variance of mean

 

Five MA(1) processes with 50 observations are listed below. The variance of åt is 1.

 


A.     For each process, what is the variance of , the average of the Y observations?

B.     How does the pattern of the first time series differ from that of the last time series?

C.    Explain intuitively why oscillating patterns have lower variances of their means.

 

 


 

1.      Yt = ì + et + et-1

2.      Yt = ì + et + ½ et-1

3.      Yt = ì + et

4.      Yt = ì + et – ½ et-1

5.      Yt = ì + et – et-1


 

 

(See page 50 of the Cryer and Chan text, Exercise 3.2)

 

 


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TS Module 3 variance of mean HW.pdf (2.3K views, 32.00 KB)
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RayDHIII
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Mark, rhok is the autocorrelation function at lag k, which is given to us to be gammak/gamma0.  Gammak is the autocovariance function at lag k (which should be written gamma0,k, but is simplfied for our convenience), Cov(Yt,Yt-k). 

Thus, rho1 = gamma1/gamma0 = Cov(Yt,Yt-1)/Cov(Yt,Yt-0) = Cov(Yt,Yt-1)/Var(Yt).

For problem 2, we are asked to find Var(Y-bar) of an MA(1) process: Yt = mu + et + .5et-1 with 50 observations (so we can't use the estimate formula, as n should be greater than 50), and Var(et) = 1.  We will use the formula on page 28: Var(Y-bar) = (gamma0/n)[1+2(1-1/n)(rho1)], this is a reduced version of the summation formula above on the same page because an MA(1) process has rhok=0 for k>1.

First, find the variance of Yt using the rules of variance and assume the independence of the e's:  Var(Yt) = Var(mu + et+ .5et-1) = Var(mu) + Var(et) + Var(et-1) = 0 + Var(et) + Var(et) = gamma0.

Next, in order to find rho1, we must find gamma1 = Cov(Yt,Yt-1) = Cov(et+.5et-1,et-1+.5et-2) = Cov(.5et-1,et-1) = .5Var(et-1).  You now have enough information to complete the given formula for Var(Y-bar).  Let me know if you have further questions.

RDH


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