TS Module 4: Variance of mean homework assignment


TS Module 4: Variance of mean homework assignment

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NEAS
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TS Module 4: Variance of mean homework assignment

(The attached PDF file has better formatting.)

Homework assignment: Variance of mean

An MA(2) process Yt = et – è1 et-1 – è2 et-2 has N observations, with ó2e = 1, –1 è1 +1, –1 è2 +1. What values of è1 and è2 maximize the variance of , the average of the Y values?What values of è1 and è2 minimizes the variance of , the average of the Y values?Your answer should give a line of values for each part, such as è1 + è2 = k.

Jacob: How should we reason through this homework assignment?

Rachel: Write the value of in terms of the å’s: yj = ån + (1 – è1) ån-1 + (1 – è1 – è2) ån-2 + …

Most of the terms have (1 – è1 – è2) ån-2 ; only the two terms at the beginning and the two terms at the end have fewer è’s. Ignore these beginning and end terms (assuming n is large).

All the å’s are independent. We choose è1 and è2 to maximize or minimize (1 – è1 – è2) ån-2, which is easy.

For the homework assignment, ignoring the end terms is fine. If N is small, the answer differs slightly, and the calculations are messy.
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TS Module 4 variance of mean HW.pdf (1.9K views, 39.00 KB)
ConfusedNoob2
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I'm confused - the homework assignment seems to cover things not in the readings for this module.  The all in 1 pdf of homework (which I understand was submitted by a user, not NEAS) also seems to have a different homework assignment than the pdf attached.  The all in 1 pdf HW assignment for module 4 DOES seem to be relevant to the readings though.  

Is
"TS Module 4: Variance of mean homework assignment" the correct assignment? (NEAS: Yes, this is the correct assignment)
or the:
"TS Module 4: Regression methods HW" correct? (which is in the all in 1 pdf, but seems relevant to the readings assigned)?

Edited 9 Years Ago by NEAS
LBB
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Is this just taking the derivative (1-theta(1)-theta(2))(epsilon(n-2)) with respect to epsilon(n-2) and setting the equation equal to zero? If not, is there a page reference in the book to assist?
Time Series Noob
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I'm having a really hard time understanding what this question is even asking.. I dnt see anything related to this in the reading. Can someone please help?
ekitelinger
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This looks different from the homework assignment I printed. The one that I see has exhibit 3.10 and is showing standardized residuals versus Fitted VAlues for the temp. Seasonal means model.

I’m wondering about questions C and D. For C, it asked if toy sales are higher in December (500,000) and low in February (50,000). Would you expect the residuals to have a higher variance in December or February? What’s the intuition behind this? It does not seem obvious to me.

Part D asks why this reasoning does not apply to daily temperature.

Would you please help me understand the idea behind this, or where in the book it explains this reasoning?
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