Questions and Answers on Tme Series Modeling


Questions and Answers on Tme Series Modeling

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JoeyR
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Should I be trying to replicate the NEAS results?

[NEAS: This is an independent student project. The NEAS postings are suggestions to get you started. You can construct an ARIMA model, compare two or more models for a given era, compare two or three eras by type of model of by model parameters, examine seasonality, test out-of-sample forecasts, and many other items.]


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JoeyR
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I don't want to harp on the topic, but I would have to agree with this statement - maybe that's because I'm also in the consulting field.  The reality of this material is that it is not relevant to what we [I] do.  This is even confirmed in the homework assignments as they make the statement that statisticians use time series differently than actuaries - I would go even further to say that the average actuary doesn't even use time series in their everyday professional lives.

This is my biggest beef with the SOA material and requisites - I find myself working like nuts, then cramming over a short period of time then regurgitating the material on paper and shortly afterwards forgetting everything I "learned".

Something should be done to make the exam process more relevant to actual practice.

I do see it your way too Tuba, however, being stuck between having to be efficient at work and having to obtain my FSA as quickly as possible in order to repossess control over my life again, I've chosen the route of least constraint - that being cram and regurgitate!

Jacob: Some candidates say the syllabus material is not relevant to actuarial work; is that true?

Rachel: NEAS does not determine the syllabus material, and we do not judge this issue. We try to make the material more relevant. We apply the syllabus material to actuarial work. Most time series processes are used for business sales. We show applications to insurance loss trends, interest rates, inflation rates,


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